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Waarde dollar blijft dalen door beleid Federal Reserve

De dollar blijft waarde verliezen nu de Amerikaanse centrale bank, de Federal Reserve, zegt vast te houden aan het stimuleren van de economie. Daarmee lijkt het niet waarschijnlijk dat de rente wordt verhoogd.

In Europa neemt de kans op een renteverhoging juist toe. De inflatie in de Eurozone is in april 0,1 procentpunt gestegen tot 2,8 procent. De stijging is vooral het gevolg van duurder voedsel en olie.

Een euro is nu 1,46 dollar waard, tegen 1,44 dollar een week eerder. Daarnaast is de waarde van de euro ten opzichte van de Britse munteenheid een fractie gestegen naar 0,89 Britse pond. Het interbancaire rentetarief Euribor drie maanden, die vaak als referentie dient bij leningen, staat op 1,38 procent. Dat betekent al met al een forse stijging. In januari kwam het tarief gemiddeld uit op 1 procent terwijl in maart nog 1,1 procent is genoteerd.

ING Bank, dat uitgaat van een inflatie van 3 procent medio 2011 spreekt een Europa dat ”hinkelend” naar herstel gaat. De consument koopt wel voeding, maar de consumptie van niet-voedingsmiddelen neemt nauwelijks toe. Ook de arbeidsmarkt herstelt nog maar matig. De inflatie hakt in de koopkracht, schrijft ook Robeco, dat een verdere verdubbeling van de inflatie verwacht.

De ”goedkope” dollar vertaalt zich voor voedingsconcerns in goedkoper inkopen van graan, soja en suiker. Op de wereldmarkt worden deze agrarische grondstoffen doorgaans in dollars verrekend. Omdat ook aardolie vaak in dollars wordt verrekend, dalen ook relatieve vrachtkosten.

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